Chinese yuan at weakest since 2008, dollar index strengthens
The offshore and onshore Chinese yuan breached 7.2 against the dollar, hovering at weakest levels since early 2008.
The U.S. dollar index also strengthened by 0.33%, trading at 114.47.
Consumer inflation in Japan could decline in 2023: BOJ meeting minutes
Consumer inflation excluding fresh food is likely to rise this year, but the rate of increase will slow thereafter on energy prices, minutes from Bank of Japan’s July meeting said.
A few members also said inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, is unlikely to reach 2% within its projection period. That CPI reading was 1.6% in August.
“These members expressed the view that, unless commodity prices continued to rise, the CPI inflation rate was expected to decline from fiscal 2023 onward,” the minutes said.
On the yen, one BOJ board member said downward pressure on the currency could be alleviated if a slowdown in the global economy led to a decline in inflation and interest rates worldwide.
Another member said the yen could even appreciate if the global economy faces shocks.
— Abigail Ng
CNBC Pro: Asset manager reveals what’s next for stocks — and shares how he’s trading the market
Neil Veitch, investment director at Edinburgh-based SVM Asset Management, says he expects the macro landscape to remain “quite difficult” for the remainder of the year.
Speaking to CNBC Pro Talks last week, Veitch named the key drivers that could help the stock market to turn “more constructive” and shared his take on growth versus value.
— Zavier Ong
Earnings questions, potential recession mean more selling could be ahead
The Dow and S&P 500 have fallen for six straight days, with many of those seeing broad selling typical of so-called “washout” days.
That can sometimes be a contrarian buy signal on Wall Street, but many investment professionals are skeptical that the selling is over. One reason is that earnings expectations for next year still show solid growth, which would be unlikely in the event of a recession.
“We know that if we start seeing a turnaround in the 2-year yields … and if we start seeing a turnaround in the dollar, that gives us the ability to bounce from these extremely oversold conditions,” said Andrew Smith, chief investment strategist of Delos Capital Advisors in Dallas. “But I have a hard time reconciling in my mind that the earnings story is going to be as good as we expect.”
Additionally, the dramatic moves in the bond and currency markets means that “something broke” and it may be smart to wait for that information to shake out, Smith said.
On the positive side, Smith pointed to a strong labor market and signs of continued spending on travel as a sign that the U.S. economy may be able to avoid a major recession.
— Jesse Pound
U.S. 10-year yield closes in on key 4% level
The 10-year Treasury yield is edging close to 4%, a level it has not touched since 2010.
The U.S. 10-year is the benchmark yield that sets the course for home mortgage rates and other consumer and business loans. It has bounded higher this week, as U.K. gilt yields race higher and on expectations of an aggressive Federal Reserve.
The yield was at 3.96% in afternoon trading. The 10-year yield reversed an earlier decline and gained about basis points. (A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point)
“It’s definitely been impressive, and I just think no one is yet willing to step in and catch the falling knife,” said Ben Jeffery of BMO. He added a lack of liquidity has also been pushing up yields, which move opposite price.
Jeffery said the yield was also moving higher ahead of the 1 p.m. auction of 5-year notes.
He said the 10-year tested the 4% level in 2010. “The last time we were sustainably above 4% was 2008. There’s another technical level at 4.10% and then there’s not much of note until 4.25%,” he said.
— Patti Domm